Dzierma, Yvonne and Wehrmann, Heidi (2012) Probabilities of future eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc – a statistical perspective International Journal of Earth Sciences . DOI 10.1007/s00531-012-0803-2.

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Abstract

A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for
seven historically active volcanoes along the Central
American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical
contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment.
The eruption probabilities are determined with a
Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric
time series models are applied to describe the historical
eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are
currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa Marı´a,
Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions
of VEI C 2 occur at Concepcio´n and Cerro Negro in
Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the
next 10 years. Poa´s and Irazu´ in Costa Rica show a medium
to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel
(El Salvador), Rinco´n de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco
(El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).

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