Regional Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO(2) on Future Ocean Carbon Uptake: A Multimodel Linear Feedback Analysis.

Roy, T., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Schneider, B., Cadule, P., Frolicher, T. L., Segschneider, Joachim, Tjiputra, J., Heinze, C. and Joos, F. (2011) Regional Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO(2) on Future Ocean Carbon Uptake: A Multimodel Linear Feedback Analysis. Journal of Climate, 24 (9). pp. 2300-2318. DOI 10.1175/2010jcli3787.1.

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Abstract

The increase in atmospheric CO(2) over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air sea CO(2) uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO(2) itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO(2) uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO(2) emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO(2) uptake into a CO(2)-induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation-based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO(2) uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO(2) uptake in the subpolar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO(2) solubility; and reduced CO(2) uptake in the midlatitudes, owing to decreased CO(2) solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extratropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO(2) solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO(2) uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO(2)-induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extratropics and 25% in the southern extratropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO(2) uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: general-circulation model global vegetation model cycle feedbacks north-atlantic anthropogenic co2 positive feedback system model dioxide variability dynamics
Research affiliation: Kiel University > Kiel Marine Science
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R11
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
Kiel University
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.1175/2010jcli3787.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2011 05:24
Last Modified: 30 Jul 2019 06:09
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/15650

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