Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections.

Cocco, V., Joos, F., Steinacher, M., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Dunne, J., Gehlen, M., Heinze, C., Orr, J., Oschlies, Andreas, Schneider, Birgit, Segschneider, Joachim and Tjiputra, J. (2013) Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections. Open Access Biogeosciences (BG), 10 (3). pp. 1849-1868. DOI 10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013.

[img]
Preview
Text
Cocco_etalBG13.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (6Mb) | Preview

Supplementary data:

Abstract

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Document Type: Article
Funder compliance: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/211384
Additional Information: WOS:000317010600040
Keywords: CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL; ISOPYCNIC COORDINATE MODEL; SUBTROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC; CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACKS; OCEAN ACIDIFICATION; ATMOSPHERE MODEL; TROPICAL OCEANS; REDFIELD RATIOS; CO2
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB2 Marine Biogeochemistry > FB2-BM Biogeochemical Modeling
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R09
Kiel University > Kiel Marine Science
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R11
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
Kiel University
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013
ISSN: 1726-4170
Projects: EPOCA, CARBOCHANGE, COMBINE, CarboSeason, BIOFEEDBACK, Future Ocean
Date Deposited: 22 Mar 2013 13:18
Last Modified: 03 Apr 2018 09:34
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20791

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

More statistics for this item...