Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea.

Löptien, Ulrike and Axell, L. (2014) Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea. Open Access The Cryosphere, 8 . pp. 2409-2418. DOI 10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014.

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Abstract

The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typically, the forecast comprises several ice properties that are distributed as prognostic variables, but their actual usefulness is difficult to measure, and the ship captains must determine their relative importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc.

The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing the ship speeds, obtained by the automatic identification system (AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that, despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely, 62–67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed-effect model. This statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Sea during the severe winter 2011 and employs 15 to 25 min averages of ship speed.

Document Type: Article
Funder compliance: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/233884
Additional Information: WOS:000347468000026
Keywords: Baltic Sea; Numerical Sea Ice Model; Forecast; Model Evaluation; Ship Speed Observations; Automatic Identification System for Ships (AIS); Shipping
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB2 Marine Biogeochemistry > FB2-BM Biogeochemical Modeling
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014
ISSN: 1994-0416
Projects: SAFEWIN
Date Deposited: 11 Aug 2014 12:32
Last Modified: 05 Feb 2015 12:24
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432

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