Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations.

Schmittner, A., Latif, Mojib and Schneider, Birgit (2005) Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 32 . L23710. DOI 10.1029/2005GL024368.

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Abstract

Most climate models predict a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century when forced by increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. The model spread, however, is rather large, even when the forcing scenario is identical, indicating a large uncertainty in the response to forcing. In order to reduce the model uncertainties a weighting procedure is applied considering the skill of each model in simulating hydrographic properties and observation-based circulation estimates. This procedure yields a “best estimate” for the evolution of the North Atlantic THC during the 21st century by taking into account a measure of model quality. Using 28 projections from 9 different coupled global climate models of a scenario of future CO2 increase (SRESA1B) performed for the upcoming fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the analysis predicts a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic THC by 25(±25)% until 2100.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: North Atlantic, THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1029/2005GL024368
ISSN: 0094-8276
Date Deposited: 03 Dec 2008 16:50
Last Modified: 21 Mar 2018 13:51
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269

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