It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Quaas, Martin, Reusch, Thorsten B.H., Schmidt, Jörn, Tahvonen, Olli and Voss, Rudi (2016) It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling Global Change Biology, 22 (1). pp. 264-270. DOI 10.1111/gcb.13060.

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[img] Text (Figure S1. Past development (according to ICES/ICCAT stock assessments) in filled circles, sample of stochastic future development (empty circles), and most likely future development for a scenario with economic parameters set constant at 2008 levels,...)
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[img] Text (Figure S2. Past development (according to ICES/ICCAT stock assessments) in filled circles, sample of stochastic future development (empty circles), and most likely future development for the baseline scenario of future spawning stock sizes, as in Fig. 1..)
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[img] Text (Figure S3. Past development (according to ICES/ICCAT stock assessments) in filled circles, and model runs starting in 1988 with sample of stochastic development (empty circles), and most likely development for the baseline scenario)
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[img] Text (Data S1. Materials and methods, detailing the bio-economic modeling approach. Fishing cost functions are parametrized based on literature data where available (Arnason et al., 2004; Diekert et al., 2010; Froese & Quaas, 2011, 2012) or otherwise using ...)
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Abstract

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species – Atlantic salmon and European sea bass – mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological–economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Document Type: Article
Additional Information: WOS:000367982900021 ; PubMed ID: 26348787
Keywords: aquaculture, cod, fish market, fisheries management, global change, marine biology, resource economics, tuna
Research affiliation: OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R03
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R02
Kiel University > Kiel Marine Science
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB3 Marine Ecology > FB3-EV Evolutionary Ecology of Marine Fishes
Kiel University > Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Department of Economics
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1111/gcb.13060
ISSN: 1354-1013
Projects: Future Ocean, BIOACID
Date Deposited: 09 Sep 2015 13:21
Last Modified: 03 May 2017 11:41
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/29573

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