North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability.

Wu, Yanling, Park, Taewook, Park, Wonsun and Latif, Mojib (2018) North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 481 . pp. 171-176. DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.012.

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[img] Text (Fig. S1 presents a different approach to identify AMOC/APT link through an integrated index. Fig. S2 shows the overturning patterns for models with large and small APT values.)
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Abstract

The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: multiyear predictability; model bias; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC); Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV)
Research affiliation: OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R02
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Kiel University
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.012
ISSN: 0012-821X
Projects: RACE, NACLIM, KCM
Expeditions/Models/Experiments:
Date Deposited: 27 Nov 2017 12:23
Last Modified: 01 Feb 2019 15:12
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/40275

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