The effect of obliquity-driven changes on paleoclimate sensitivity during the late Pleistocene.

Köhler, Peter, Knorr, Gregor, Stap, Lennert B., Ganoposlky, Andrey, de Boer, Bas, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Barker, Stephen and Rüpke, Lars H. (2018) The effect of obliquity-driven changes on paleoclimate sensitivity during the late Pleistocene. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (13). pp. 6661-6671. DOI 10.1029/2018GL077717.

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We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state‐dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land‐ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multi‐millennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction‐based extrapolation of S for the future we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg‐CO2 divergence and find that S is less state‐dependent, or even constant (state‐independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: climate sensitivity, ECS, state dependence, Pleistocene, proxies, simulation
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB4 Dynamics of the Ocean Floor > FB4-MUHS
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1029/2018GL077717
ISSN: 0094-8276
Projects: PACES-II, PalMod in-kind
Date Deposited: 19 Jun 2018 10:25
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2020 09:12

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