Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany.

Santamaria Aguilar, S., Arns, A. and Vafeidis, A. T. (2017) Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (4). pp. 2742-2759. DOI 10.1002/2016JC012579.

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Supplementary data:

Abstract

Both the temporal and spatial variability of storm surge water level (WL) curves are usually not taken into account in flood risk assessments as observational data are often scarce. In addition, sea‐level rise (SLR) can further affect the variability of WLs. We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the WL curve of 75 historical storm surge events that have been numerically simulated for St. Peter‐Ording at the German North Sea coast, considering the effects induced by three SLR scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and a RCP 8.5 high end scenario). We assess potential impacts of these scenarios on two parameters related to flooding: overflow volumes and fullness. Our results indicate that due to both the temporal and spatial variability of those events the resulting overflow volume can be two or even three times greater. We observe a steepening of the WL curve with an increase of the tidal range under the three SLR scenarios, although SLR induced effects are relatively higher for the RCP 4.5. The steepening of the WL curve with SLR produces a reduction of the fullness, but the changes in overflow volumes also depend on the magnitude of the storm surge event.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: storm surge extreme water level variability water level curve sea‐level rise flood risk
Research affiliation: Kiel University > Kiel Marine Science
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
Kiel University
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1002/2016JC012579
ISSN: 2169-9275
Projects: Future Ocean
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2019 12:46
Last Modified: 13 May 2019 10:15
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/45606

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