Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability.

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi , England, Matthew H. , Sen Gupta, Alex , Santoso, Agus , Taschetto, Andréa S., Martin, Thomas , Park, Wonsun and Latif, Mojib (2019) Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability. Open Access Nature Communications, 10 (Article 1990). DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-09761-2.

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Abstract

Climate models generally simulate a long-term slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation in a warming world. However, despite increasing greenhouse forcing, there was an unprecedented intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds during 1992–2011, that co-occurred with a temporary slowdown in global surface warming. Using ensemble simulations from three different climate models starting from different initial conditions, we find a large spread in projected 20-year globally averaged surface air temperature trends that can be linked to differences in Pacific climate variability. This implies diminished predictive skill for global surface air temperature trends over decadal timescales, to a large extent due to intrinsic Pacific Ocean variability. We show, however, that this uncertainty can be considerably reduced when the initial oceanic state is known and well represented in the model. In this case, the spatial patterns of 20-year surface air temperature trends depend largely on the initial state of the Pacific Ocean.

Document Type: Article
Funder compliance: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603521
Keywords: INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY; DECADAL VARIABILITY; NORTH PACIFIC; EL-NINO; CIRCULATION; OCEAN; DYNAMICS; OSCILLATION; TEMPERATURE; MODULATION
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.1038/s41467-019-09761-2
ISSN: 2041-1723
Related URLs:
Projects: PREFACE, SACCUS, RACE II, InterDec, ISOS
Date Deposited: 02 May 2019 07:36
Last Modified: 14 Jun 2019 09:35
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/46544

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