Statistical eruption forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: typical frequencies of volcanic eruptions as baseline for possibly enhanced activity following the large 2010 Concepción earthquake.

Dzierma, Yvonne and Wehrmann, Heidi (2010) Statistical eruption forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: typical frequencies of volcanic eruptions as baseline for possibly enhanced activity following the large 2010 Concepción earthquake. Open Access Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10 . pp. 2093-2108. DOI 10.5194/nhess-10-2093-2010.

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Abstract

A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for ten volcanoes of the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ). Since 70% of the Chilean population lives in this area, the estimation of future eruption likelihood is an important part of hazard assessment. After investigating the completeness and stationarity of the historical eruption time series, the exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the repose time distributions for the individual volcanoes and the models are evaluated. This procedure has been implemented in two different ways to methodologically compare details in the fitting process. With regard to the probability of at least one VEI ≥ 2 eruption in the next decade, Llaima, Villarrica and Nevados de Chillán are most likely to erupt, while Osorno shows the lowest eruption probability among the volcanoes analysed. In addition to giving a compilation of the statistical eruption forecasts along the historically most active volcanoes of the SVZ, this paper aims to give "typical" eruption probabilities, which may in the future permit to distinguish possibly enhanced activity in the aftermath of the large 2010 Concepción earthquake.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: Volcanology; eruption forecast; volcanic eruptions
Research affiliation: OceanRep > SFB 574 > C2
OceanRep > SFB 574
OceanRep > SFB 574 > A2
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB4 Dynamics of the Ocean Floor > FB4-MUHS Magmatic and Hydrothermal Systems
Kiel University
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.5194/nhess-10-2093-2010
ISSN: 1561-8633
Contribution Number:
ProjectNumber
SFB 574195
Date Deposited: 21 Jul 2010 10:53
Last Modified: 27 Feb 2017 10:11
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8702

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