On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses.

Dzierma, Yvonne and Wehrmann, Heidi (2012) On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses. Open Access Andean Geology, 39 (3). pp. 380-393. DOI 10.5027/andgeoV39n3-a02.

[img]
Preview
Text
dzierma-wehrmann-andeangeol2012.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (3115Kb) | Preview

Supplementary data:

Abstract

A sequence of 150 explosive eruptions recorded during the past century at the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) is subjected to statistical time series analysis. The exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the eruption record, separately for literature-assigned volcanic explosivity indices (VEI) ≥2 and VEI ≥3. Since statistical tests confirm the adequacy of all the fits to describe the data, all models are used to estimate the likelihood of future eruptions. Only small differences are observed between the different distribution functions with regard to the eruption forecast, whereby the log-logistic distribution predicts the lowest probabilities. There is a 50% probability for VEI ≥2 eruptions to occur in the SVZ within less than a year, and 90% probability to occur within the next 2-3 years. For the larger VEI ≥3 eruptions, the 50% probability is reached in 3-4 years, while the 90% level is reached in 9-11 years

Document Type: Article
Additional Information: WOS:000313418600002
Keywords: Volcanology; Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone, volcanic hazards, probabilistic erution forecast; Eruption time series analysis; TIME-SERIES; PATTERNS; HAZARD; ANDES; MODELS
Research affiliation: OceanRep > SFB 574 > C2
OceanRep > SFB 574
OceanRep > SFB 574 > A2
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB4 Dynamics of the Ocean Floor > FB4-MUHS Magmatic and Hydrothermal Systems
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.5027/andgeoV39n3-a02
ISSN: 0718-7092
Contribution Number:
ProjectNumber
SFB 574200
Date Deposited: 14 Sep 2010 09:09
Last Modified: 05 Sep 2016 12:50
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8897

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

More statistics for this item...