Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5-to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France.

Poumadere, M., Mays, C., Pfeifle, G. and Vafeidis, A. T. (2008) Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5-to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France. Climatic Change, 91 (1-2). pp. 123-143. DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9446-5.

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Abstract

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5- to 6-m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030–2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5–6 m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative “wait and see” option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1 m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present-day policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: Heat Wave, Policy Exercise, Scenario Workshop, Socioeconomic Scenario, Stakeholder Participant
Research affiliation: Kiel University
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1007/s10584-008-9446-5
ISSN: 0165-0009
Projects: Future Ocean
Date Deposited: 12 Oct 2010 13:21
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2019 21:30
URI: http://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/9101

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