Bewertung von Modellqualität und Unsicherheiten in der Klimamodellierung.

Oschlies, Andreas (2018) Bewertung von Modellqualität und Unsicherheiten in der Klimamodellierung. Open Access In: Unsicherheit als Herausforderung für die Wissenschaft : Reflexionen aus Natur-, Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften. , ed. by Janich, Nina and Rhein, Lisa. Peter Lang, Berlin, Germany, pp. 15-30. ISBN 978-3-631-76153-3

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The chapter discusses sources of uncertainties in climate models and their possible impacts on the model results. The three criteria “adequacy”, “consistency” and “representativeness” are suggested for a comprehensive assessment of the quality of climate models. The fit to data determines the model’s representativeness. For many climate variables, such as precipitation, cloudiness and the climate sensitivity, this has not significantly improved from the second-to-last to the last assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the level of detailed mechanistic descriptions has increased for a number of processes included in the models, yielding an improved adequacy of these models. Still, with current climate models being still unable to consistently reproduce glacial cycles driven only by orbital parameters, and with the amplitude of climate change expected until the end of the century being of similar amplitude as glacial-interglacial changes, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding how reliable current models’ projections of 21st century climate change can be. However, uncertainty must not hinder society to make informed decisions, and it is the responsibility of climate research to provide relevant information regarding the uncertainty of climate model projections.

Document Type: Book chapter
Keywords: Erdklima; Erdsystemmodelle; Klimamodelle; CO2-Emissionen; parametrische Unsicherheiten; Adäquatheit; Konsistenz; Repräsentativität
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB2 Marine Biogeochemistry > FB2-BM Biogeochemical Modeling
Projects: SPP 1689
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2018 10:45
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2018 10:45

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