Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate.

Kushnir, Yochanan , Scaife, Adam A. , Arritt, Raymond, Balsamo, Gianpaolo , Boer, George, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Hawkins, Ed , Kimoto, Masahide, Kolli, Rupa Kumar, Kumar, Arun, Matei, Daniela, Matthes, Katja , Müller, Wolfgang A., O’Kane, Terence, Perlwitz, Judith, Power, Scott , Raphael, Marilyn , Shimpo, Akihiko, Smith, Doug, Tuma, Matthias and Wu, Bo (2019) Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate. Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101. DOI 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7.

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Near-term climate predictions — which operate on annual to decadal timescales — offer benefits for climate adaptation and resilience, and are thus important for society. Although skilful near-term predictions are now possible, particularly when coupled models are initialized from the current climate state (most importantly from the ocean), several scientific challenges remain, including gaps in understanding and modelling the underlying physical mechanisms. This Perspective discusses how these challenges can be overcome, outlining concrete steps towards the provision of operational near-term climate predictions. Progress in this endeavour will bridge the gap between current seasonal forecasts and century-scale climate change projections, allowing a seamless climate service delivery chain to be established.

Document Type: Article
Dewey Decimal Classification: 500 Natural Sciences and Mathematics > 550 Earth sciences & geology
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
ISSN: 1758-678X
Date Deposited: 23 Jan 2019 08:04
Last Modified: 16 Apr 2019 13:08

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