Strategies for simulating the drift of marine debris.

Durgadoo, Jonathan V. , Biastoch, Arne , New, Adrian L. , Rühs, Siren , Nurser, Aylmer J.G. , Drillet, Yann and Bidlot, Jean-Raymond (2021) Strategies for simulating the drift of marine debris. Open Access Journal of Operational Oceanography, 14 (1). pp. 1-12. DOI 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1602102.

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Modelling the drift of marine debris in quasi-real time can be of societal relevance. One pertinent example is Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. The aircraft is assumed to have crashed in the Indian Ocean, leaving floating wreckage to drift on the surface. Some of these items were recovered around the western Indian Ocean. We use ocean currents simulated by an operational ocean model in conjunction with surface Stokes drift to determine the possible paths taken by the debris. We consider: (1) How important is the influence of surface waves on the drift? (2) What are the relative benefits of forward- and backward-tracking in time? (3) Does including information from more items refine the most probable crash-site region? Our results highlight a critical contribution of Stokes drift and emphasise the need to know precisely the buoyancy characteristics of the items. The differences between the tracking approaches provide a measure of uncertainty which can be minimised by simulating a sufficiently large number of virtual debris. Given the uncertainties associated with the timings of the debris sightings, we show that at least 5 items are required to achieve an optimal most probable crash-site region. The results have implications for other drift simulation applications.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: Flight MH370; flaperon, Lagrangian analysis, operational model, Stokes drift
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-OD Ocean Dynamics
Main POF Topic: PT2: Ocean and Cryosphere
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
DOI etc.: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1602102
ISSN: 1755-876X
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2019 09:23
Last Modified: 13 Jan 2021 13:17

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