Simple noise estimates and pseudoproxies for the last 21 000 years.

Bothe, Oliver , Wagner, Sebastian and Zorita, Eduardo (2019) Simple noise estimates and pseudoproxies for the last 21 000 years. Open Access Earth System Science Data, 11 (3). pp. 1129-1152. DOI 10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019.

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Climate reconstructions are means to extract the signal from uncertain paleo-observations, so-called proxies. It is essential to evaluate these reconstructions to understand and quantify their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and proxies requires approaches to bridge the temporal and spatial differences between both and to address their specific uncertainties. One way to achieve these two goals is so-called pseudoproxies. These are surrogate proxy records within the virtual reality of a climate simulation. They in turn depend on an understanding of the uncertainties of the real proxies including the noise characteristics disturbing the original environmental signal. Common pseudoproxy approaches so far concentrate on data with high temporal resolution over the last approximately 2000 years. Here we provide a simple but flexible noise model for potentially low-resolution sedimentary climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales, the code for calculating a set of pseudoproxies from a simulation, and one example of pseudoproxies. The noise model considers the influence of other environmental variables, a dependence on the climate state, a bias due to changing seasonality, modifications of the archive (for example bioturbation), potential sampling variability, and a measurement error. Model, code, and data allow us to develop new ways of comparing simulation data with proxies on long timescales. Code and data are available at (Bothe et al., 2018).

Document Type: Article
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019
ISSN: 1866-3516
Related URLs:
Projects: PalMod
Date Deposited: 21 Apr 2020 08:41
Last Modified: 08 Feb 2021 07:35

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