Atlantic Climate Variability and Predictability: A CLIVAR perspective.

Hurrell, J. W., Visbeck, Martin , Busalacchi, A., Clarke, R. A., Delworth, T. L. , Dickson, R. R. , Johns, W. E. , Koltermann, K. P., Kushnir, Y. , Marshall, D. , Mauritzen, C. , McCartney, M. S., Piola, A. , Reason, C. , Reverdin, G., Schott, Friedrich, Sutton, R., Wainer, I. and Wright, D. (2006) Atlantic Climate Variability and Predictability: A CLIVAR perspective. Open Access Journal of Climate, 19 (20). pp. 5100-5121. DOI 10.1175/JCLI3902.1.

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Abstract

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: Physical Oceanography; Atlantic Ocean, Climate prediction, Variational studies, Tropical variability, North Atlantic Oscillation
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-PO Physical Oceanography
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
Publisher: AMS (American Meteorological Society)
Projects: CLIVAR
Date Deposited: 03 Dec 2008 16:50
Last Modified: 23 Aug 2017 10:51
URI: https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/6442

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