Reply to “Comment on ‘Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping, and Downscaling: Revisiting the Inflation Issue’”.

Maraun, Douglas (2014) Reply to “Comment on ‘Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping, and Downscaling: Revisiting the Inflation Issue’”. Open Access Journal of Climate, 27 (4). pp. 1821-1825. DOI 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00307.1.

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In his comment, G. Bürger criticizes the conclusion that inflation of trends by quantile mapping is an adverse effect.He assumes that the argument would be ‘‘based on the belief that long-term trends and along with them future climate signals are to be large scale.’’ His line of argument reverts to the so-called inflated regression. Here it is shown, by referring to previous critiques of inflation and standard literature in statistical modeling as well as weather forecasting, that inflation is built upon a wrong understanding of explained
versus unexplained variability and prediction versus simulation. It is argued that a sound regressionbased downscaling can in principle introduce systematic local variability in long-term trends, but inflation systematically deteriorates the representation of trends. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that inflation by construction deteriorates weather forecasts and is not able to correctly simulate small-scale spatiotemporal structure.

Document Type: Article
Additional Information: WOS:000330816100028
Keywords: Bias; Regression analysis; Forecast verification; skill; Model output statistics; Subgrid-scale processes; Trends
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
Publisher: AMS (American Meteorological Society)
Date Deposited: 25 Mar 2014 09:16
Last Modified: 25 Aug 2017 07:50

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