Stochastic Model Output Statistics for Bias Correcting and Downscaling Precipitation Including Extremes.

Wong, Geraldine, Maraun, Douglas , Vrac, Mathieu, Widmann, Martin, Eden, Jonathan M. and Kent, Thomas (2014) Stochastic Model Output Statistics for Bias Correcting and Downscaling Precipitation Including Extremes. Open Access Journal of Climate, 27 (18). pp. 6940-6959. DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00604.1.

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Precipitation is highly variable in space and time; hence, rain gauge time series generally exhibit additional random small-scale variability compared to area averages. Therefore, differences between daily precipitation statistics simulated by climate models and gauge observations are generally not only caused by model biases, but also by the corresponding scale gap. Classical bias correction methods, in general, cannot bridge this gap; they do not account for small-scale random variability and may produce artifacts. Here, stochastic model output statistics is proposed as a bias correction framework to explicitly account for random small-scale variability. Daily precipitation simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) is employed to predict the probability distribution of local precipitation. The pairwise correspondence between predictor and predictand required for calibration is ensured by driving the RCM with perfect boundary conditions. Wet day probabilities are described by a logistic regression, and precipitation intensities are described by a mixture model consisting of a gamma distribution for moderate precipitation and a generalized Pareto distribution for extremes. The dependence of the model parameters on simulated precipitation is modeled by a vector generalized linear model. The proposed model effectively corrects systematic biases and correctly represents local-scale random variability for most gauges. Additionally, a simplified model is considered that disregards the separate tail model. This computationally efficient model proves to be a feasible alternative for precipitation up to moderately extreme intensities. The approach sets a new framework for bias correction that combines the advantages of weather generators and RCMs.

Document Type: Article
Additional Information: WOS:000341981800006
Keywords: Extreme events, Precipitation, Bias, Model output statistics, Regional models, Stochastic models
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
Publisher: AMS (American Meteorological Society)
Date Deposited: 20 Oct 2014 11:21
Last Modified: 04 Aug 2020 09:26

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