Ryzhov, Ivan (2009) Long-Term Changes of Extreme Levels of Arctic Seas and Their Reasons . (Master thesis), University of Bremen ; [St. Petersburg State University], Bremen ; St. Petersburg, Russia, 49 pp.

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Abstract

This study is focused on regularities between surges, the trajectory of the cyclones movement and the ice regime during the period from 1954 to 2007.
We processed data of sea-level changes over the past 60 years, recorded by 64 monitoring stations located in the four Arctic seas and analyzed the extreme fluctuations of the sea-level, data of the pressure and ice conditions.
We was found that in the last 20 years maximum annual amplitudes of sea-level fluctuations are statistically significantly decreasing by 1 cm per year along with increase of average sea-level in the arctic seas. And the position of the ice edge and the trajectories of the cyclones motion are generally shifted to the north in all the seas of Eastern Arctic. The Rate of this displacement is about 0.1 degrees per year.
Such behavior can be explained by the following assumptions:
We have assumed the relationship between the decrease of the maximum annual amplitude of sea-level oscillations in the Arctic Ocean and the global warming. And suppose that the trajectories of the cyclones movement follow the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and the ice edge, in turn, is pushed off the shore.
This may lead to decrease of atmospheric activity along the shoreline and decrease of the average amplitude of sea-level fluctuations.
Probably, the displacement of trajectories of the cyclones movement to the north caused by a shift edge of the ice fields in the Arctic to the north due to global warming of the Earth's atmosphere.

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