The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean.

Reusch, Thorsten B. H. , Dierking, Jan , Andersson, Helen C., Bonsdorff, Erik, Carstensen, Jacob, Casini, Michele, Czajkowski, Mikolaj, Hasler, Berit, Hinsby, Klaus, Hyytiäinen, Kari, Johannesson, Kerstin, Jomaa, Seifeddine, Jormalainen, Veijo, Kuosa, Harri, Kurland, Sara, Laikre, Linda, MacKenzie, Brian R., Margonski, Piotr, Melzner, Frank, Oesterwind, Daniel, Ojaveer, Henn, Refsgaard, Jens C., Sandström, Annica, Schwarz, Gerald, Tonderski, Karin, Winder, Monika and Zandersen, Marianne (2018) The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean. Open Access Science Advances, 4 (5). eaar8195. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aar8195.

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Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

Document Type: Article
Research affiliation: HGF-UFZ
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R02
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB3 Marine Ecology > FB3-EV Marine Evolutionary Ecology
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R11
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R01
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB3 Marine Ecology > FB3-EOE-B Experimental Ecology - Benthic Ecology
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: Yes
Publisher: AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
Date Deposited: 22 May 2018 12:48
Last Modified: 30 Mar 2021 13:38

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