On the non-proportionality of the effective transient climate response to cumulative emissions.

Mengis, Nadine and Matthews, Damon (2018) On the non-proportionality of the effective transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Open Access [Poster] In: AGU Fall Meeting 2018. , 10.-14.12.2018, Washington, D.C., USA .

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Abstract

The transient climate response for cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) enables us to estimate the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given CO2-induced temperature target. However, for this metric to be applicable to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 'real world' observed temperature changes, it needs to take into account the considerable contribution of non-CO2 climate forcers. In recent work this metric has been extended to the concept of the "Effective TCRE," which attempts to represent a similar relationship between CO2-equivalent emissions and total anthropogenic warming. Here we show, that while in the historical period the net-forcing from non-CO2 forcing agents has been approximately proportional to CO2 forcing, it is problematic to assume a similar behaviour for future scenarios. We further show how different assumptions on future non-CO2 climate forcing impact the estimates of the remaining carbon budgets, focussing on the example of the 1.5ºC temperature target.

Document Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Date Deposited: 08 Jul 2021 08:43
Last Modified: 08 Jul 2021 08:43
URI: https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/53299

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