Keller, David P. and UNSPECIFIED (2022) Quantification of "constrained" potential of ocean NETs. . OceanNets Deliverable, D4.1 . OceanNETs, Kiel, Germany, 28 pp. DOI 10.3289/oceannets_d4.1.

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Abstract

This study uses an existing perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of simulated ocean CO2 removal (CDR) to better determine sustainable pathways of ocean-based NET deployment and to provide information to constrain the design of subsequent modelling experiments. The results show that ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) can only help meet SDG13 (Climate Action) when other ambitious mitigation efforts are taken. This reinforces that OAE is not a substitute for emissions reduction, but could contribute to meeting our climate goals (if other factors suggest OAE is worth doing). For SDG14 (Life Below Water), the results suggest OEA can contribute to limiting or even reversing ocean acidification. Meeting many other SDG14 objectives is closely linked to also meeting SDG13. A key recommendation is therefore, that subsequent simulations in OceanNETs should only use SDG13 compatible baseline scenarios, unless there is some specific need for process understanding at higher levels of climate change. The analysis has also determined that the idealized CDR in the PPE is not suitable for determining many socio-economic constraints and the implications that these have for meeting the SDGs. Another key recommendation is therefore, that subsequent simulations within OceanNETs should use more realistic scenarios of CDR deployment.

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