Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations.

Askjær, Thomas Gravgaard, Zhang, Qiong, Schenk, Frederik, Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier, Lu, Zhengyao, Brierley, Chris M., Hopcroft, Peter O., Jungclaus, Johann, Shi, Xiaoxu, Lohmann, Gerrit, Sun, Weiyi, Liu, Jian, Braconnot, Pascale, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Wu, Zhipeng, Yin, Qiuzhen, Kang, Yibo and Yang, Haijun (2022) Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations. Open Access Quaternary Science Reviews, 296 . Art.Nr. 107801. DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107801.

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Supplementary data:


• Multi-centennial oscillation with 100–200 years periods is evident in proxy data and model simulations during the Holocene.
• Multi-centennial oscillation is a global signal and is more significant in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes.
• None of the external forcings is found to be the sole driver of the multi-centennial variability.
• It indicates the multi-centennial oscillation may be due to potential internal drivers and essential feedbacks.

Variability on centennial to multi-centennial timescales is mentioned as a feature in reconstructions of the Holocene climate. As more long transient model simulations with complex climate models become available and efforts have been made to compile large proxy databases, there is now a unique opportunity to study multi-centennial variability with greater detail and a large amount of data than earlier. This paper presents a spectral analysis of transient Holocene simulations from 9 models and 120 proxy records to find the common signals related to oscillation periods and geographic dependencies and discuss the implications for the potential driving mechanisms. Multi-centennial variability is significant in most proxy records, with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–130 years and an average of 240 years. Spectra of model-based global mean temperature (GMT) agree well with proxy evidence with significant multi-centennial variability in all simulations with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–150 years. It indicates a comparatively good agreement between model and proxy data. A lack of latitudinal dependencies in terms of oscillation period is found in both the model and proxy data. However, all model simulations have the highest spectral density distributed over the Northern hemisphere high latitudes, which could indicate a particular variability sensitivity or potential driving mechanisms in this region. Five models also have differentiated forcings simulations with various combinations of forcing agents. Significant multi-centennial variability with oscillation periods between 100 and 200 years is found in all forcing scenarios, including those with only orbital forcing. The different forcings induce some variability in the system. Yet, none appear to be the predominant driver based on the spectral analysis. Solar irradiance has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of multi-centennial variability. However, all the simulations without this forcing have shown significant multi-centennial variability. The results then indicate that internal mechanisms operate on multi-centennial timescales, and the North Atlantic-Arctic is a region of interest for this aspect.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: Multi-centennial climate variability; Paleoclimate proxy records; Holocene transient simulations; Spectral analysis; Model-proxy comparison
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
Publisher: Elsevier
Related URLs:
Projects: PalMod in-kind
Date Deposited: 15 Jun 2023 09:37
Last Modified: 15 Jun 2023 09:37

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