Hurrell, J., Delworth, T., Danabasoglu, G, Drange, H., Griffies, S., Holbrook, N, Kirtman, B., Keenlyside, Noel, Latif, Mojib , Marotzke, J., Meehl, G., Palmer, T., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, T., Seager, R., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Timmermann, A., Trenberth, K. and Tribbia, J. (2010) Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction . In: Proceedings of the "OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society". ; 2 , ed. by Hall, J., Harrison, D.E. and Stammer, D.. ESA Publication, WPP-306 . ., ., o.S.. DOI 10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.53.

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Abstract

The temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long-term warming trend, with strong multidecadal variability superimposed. The multidecadal variability is also seen in other (societal important) parameters such as Sahel rainfall or Atlantic hurricane activity. The existence of the multidecadal variability makes climate change detection a challenge, since Global Warming evolves on a similar timescale. The ongoing discussion about a potential anthropogenic signal in the Atlantic hurricane activity is an example. A lot of work was devoted during the last years to understand the dynamics of the multidecadal variability, and external as well as internal mechanisms were proposed. This White Paper focuses on the internal mechanisms relevant to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Variability (AMO/V) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Variability (PDO/V). Specific attention is given to the role of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic. The implications for decadal predictability and prediction are discussed.

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