Blenckner, Thorsten, Llope, Marcos, Moellmann, Christian, Voss, Rudi, Quaas, Martin, Casini, Michele, Lindegren, Martin, Folke, Carl and Stenseth, Nils Chr (2015) Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 282 (1803). DOI 10.1098/rspb.2014.2809.

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Abstract

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socioeconomic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million E per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.

Document Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Times Cited: 2
Keywords:	cod food-web dynamics regime shifts shifting baseline ecosystem-based management Baltic Sea
Research affiliation:	OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R03 OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R01 Kiel University OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R06 OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence > FO-R02
Refereed:	Yes
Open Access Journal?:	No
Publisher:	Royal Society of London
Projects:	Future Ocean
Date Deposited:	20 Oct 2016 11:00
Last Modified:	23 Sep 2019 20:44
URI:	https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/32417

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