MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction.

Marotzke, Jochem, Müller, Wolfgang A., Vamborg, Freja S. E., Becker, Paul, Cubasch, Ulrich, Feldmann, Hendrik, Kaspar, Frank, Kottmeier, Christoph, Marini, Camille, Polkova, Iuliia, Prömmel, Kerstin, Rust, Henning W., Stammer, Detlef, Ulbrich, Uwe, Kadow, Christopher, Köhl, Armin, Kröger, Jürgen, Kruschke, Tim , Pinto, Joaquim G., Pohlmann, Holger, Reyers, Mark, Schröder, Marc, Sienz, Frank, Timmreck, Claudia and Ziese, Markus (2016) MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Open Access Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (12). pp. 2379-2394. DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1.

[thumbnail of Marotzke2016.pdf]
Preview
Text
Marotzke2016.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0.

Download (2MB) | Preview
[thumbnail of Marotzke2016-2.pdf]
Preview
Text
Marotzke2016-2.pdf - Published Version

Download (2MB) | Preview

Supplementary data:

Abstract

A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use.

MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use.

Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption.

MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization.

Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.

Document Type: Article
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Refereed: Yes
Open Access Journal?: No
Publisher: AMS (American Meteorological Society)
Projects: MiKlip
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2016 08:20
Last Modified: 01 Feb 2019 15:17
URI: https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33166

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item