Reimann, Lena, Vafeidis, A. T., Brown, Sally, Hinkel, Jochen and Tol, Richard S. J. (2018) Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. Nature Communications, 9 (1). DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9.

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Abstract

UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.

Document Type:	Article
Keywords:	Climate-change impacts, Environmental impact, Environmental sciences, Natural hazards
Research affiliation:	Kiel University > Kiel Marine Science OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence Kiel University
Refereed:	Yes
Open Access Journal?:	Yes
Publisher:	Nature Research
Projects:	Future Ocean
Date Deposited:	30 Jan 2019 12:49
Last Modified:	08 Feb 2021 07:32
URI:	https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/45611

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