Damon Matthews, H. , Tokarska, Katarzyna B. , Rogelj, Joeri, Smith, Christopher J. , MacDougall, Andrew H., Haustein, Karsten , Mengis, Nadine , Sippel, Sebastian , Forster, Piers M. and Knutti, Reto (2021) An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (1). Art.Nr. 7. DOI 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9.

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Abstract

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.

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