Macias Moy, Diego, Stips, Adolf, Grizzetti, Bruna, Aloe, Alberto, Bisselink, Bernard, De Meij, Alexander, De Roo, Arie, Duteil, Olaf , Ferreira, Nuno, Garcia Gorriz, Elisa, Gonzalez-Fernandez, Daniel, Hristov, Jordan, Miladinova-Marinova, Svella, Parn, Ove, Piroddi, Chiara, Pisoni, Enrico, Pistocchi, Alberto, Polimene, Luca, Serpetti, Natalia, Thoma, Cristopher, Udias Moinelo, Angel, Vigiak, Olga, Weiss, Franz, Wilson, Julian and Zanni, Michaela (2022) Water/marine Zero Pollution Outlook: A forward-looking, model-based analysis of water pollution in the EU. . Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 59 pp. ISBN 978-92-76-59109-2 DOI 10.2760/681817.

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Abstract

Forward looking analyses are needed in order to anticipate which policy/management options can deliver the very ambitious objectives of the Zero Pollution (ZP) action plan. Integrated and sophisticated numerical modelling tools are useful to generate future scenarios and ‘what if’ analysis as they allow the virtual manipulation of the anthropogenic pressures on ecological systems.
JRC has been developing an integrated modelling framework covering the inland and marine waters of the EU, the Marine Modelling Framework (MMF) that follows the principle of the Digital Twins (DT) and that allow to test the impacts of diverse management strategies on the status of freshwater and marine ecosystems through the EU. In the present report, the JRC-DT for water and marine ecosystems is used to test how different policy options can help achieve some of the ZP objectives.
From the six top ambitions of the ZP action plan, two are particularly relevant for the water/marine environments. First, the ZP action plan states that it aims at ‘improving water quality by reducing waste’ and in particular, it mentions the (reduction of) ‘plastic litter at sea (by 50%)’. The second relevant ambition refers to ‘improving soil quality by reducing nutrient losses and chemical pesticides’ use by 50%’, which does not only impact soil quality but also the receiving waters (rivers, lakes and seas).

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