Jiang, Li‐Qing, Dunne, John, Carter, Brendan R., Tjiputra, Jerry F., Terhaar, Jens, Sharp, Jonathan D., Olsen, Are, Alin, Simone, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Feely, Richard A., Gattuso, Jean‐Pierre, Hogan, Patrick, Ilyina, Tatiana, Lange, Nico, Lauvset, Siv K., Lewis, Ernie R., Lovato, Tomas, Palmieri, Julien, Santana‐Falcon, Yeray, Schwinger, Jörg, Seferian, Roland, Strand, Gary, Swart, Neil, Tanhua, Toste , Tsujino, Hiroyuki, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Michio, Yamamoto, Akitomo and Ziehn, Tilo (2023) Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (3). Art.Nr. e2022MS003563. DOI 10.1029/2022MS003563.

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Abstract

Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model-data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, diversity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html, and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html.

Key Points:
- This study presents the evolution of 10 ocean acidification (OA) indicators in the global surface ocean from 1750 to 2100
- By leveraging 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) and the latest observational data, it represents a significant advancement in OA projections
- This inter-model comparison effort showcases the overall agreements among different ESMs in projecting surface ocean carbon variables

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