Hauck, Judith, Gregor, Luke, Nissen, Cara, Patara, Lavinia , Hague, Mark, Mongwe, Precious, Bushinsky, Seth, Doney, Scott C., Gruber, Nicolas, Le Quéré, Corinne, Manizza, Manfredi, Mazloff, Matthew, Monteiro, Pedro M. S. and Terhaar, Jens (2023) The Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle 1985–2018: Mean, Seasonal Cycle, Trends, and Storage. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 37 (11). Art.Nr. e2023GB007848. DOI 10.1029/2023GB007848.

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Abstract

We assess the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake (1985–2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO2 with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr−1) and pCO2-observation-based products (0.73 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1 for the same region and timeframe. The present-day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO2, driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, with pCO2-products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26 ± 0.06 and 0.11 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, respectively). This is despite nearly identical pCO2 trends in GOBMs and pCO2-products when both products are compared only at the locations where pCO2 was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non-thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of Cant points to an underestimate of Cant uptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push toward better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle.

Key Points:
- Ocean models and machine learning estimates agree on the mean Southern Ocean CO2 sink, but the trend since 2000 differs by a factor of two
- REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2 estimates a 50% smaller Southern Ocean CO2 sink for the same region and timeframe as RECCAP1
- Large model spread in summer and winter indicates that sustained efforts are required to understand driving processes in all seasons

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