Meder, Ludwig R. (2023) Investigation of the impact of turbine technologies on wind energy yields in future wind climates. (Bachelor thesis), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany, 44 pp.

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Abstract

One key result of the Paris Agreement in 2015 is the goal to keep the global temperature rise well below 2°C. In 2019, the European Union enacted the aim to be climate neutral by 2050. Already now, wind energy is playing a significant role in Germany power generation and will be more dominant in future. Therefore, all aspects of the wind energy industry have to be developed and studied including the research question how the energy yield of wind turbines changes in future wind conditions. The wind speed and air density from the climate models, IPSL -CMA6-LR and MPI - ESM1.2 - HR, participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with two scenarios SSP2 - 4.5 and SSP5 - 8.5 (SSP stands for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), are compared for a future time period (2071 - 2100) with a present time period (1985 - 2014) over Europe. The occurrence of similar simulated anomalies in both climate models indicates a higher probability in the future. One similarity is stronger winds over the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, indicating an increase of the regional low- level jet in summer. Another similarity is weaker winds over Iceland and stronger winds over the Netherlands in winter, likely because of a track shift of cyclones. Power curves are published with a constant reference air density, however, the variable air density was considered for all energy yield calculations because its deviations were significant. In addition to the future wind analysis, four wind turbines with similar rated power are classified into an older generation (OG) and a newer generation (NG) based on their specific rated power. The energy yield at six potential wind energy sites in Europe, with a focus on Ireland and Central Germany, is described along with their future changes in wind speed distributions (WSD). The result is a classification of WSD shifts with corresponding energy yield changes for the wind turbine generations into three cases. The first case shows a clear shift towards slower winds, meaning fewer higher wind speeds and more lower wind speeds in the future time period. The effect is an energy yield loss for all wind turbines, with the OG experiencing a higher reduction. The second case is a shift towards stronger winds, resulting in an energy yield gain, with a higher gain for the OG comparing the present time period. The third case shows no clear shift in the WSD, but the future energy yield can still change remarkably. A more detailed analysis is necessary to determine the direction of the energy yield change. All cases and their consequences are explained using the slope of the power curves at low wind speeds. Further work is planned to evaluate additional climate models to expand the existing database and therefore to refine the existing results.

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