Dickey, James W. E., Cuthbert, Ross N. , Moron Lugo, Sonia C., Casties, Isabel, Dick, Jaimie T.A., Steffen, Gregor T. and Briski, Elizabeta (2021) The stars are out: Predicting the effect of seawater freshening on the ecological impact of a sea star keystone predator. Ecological Indicators, 132 . Art.Nr. 108293. DOI 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108293.

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Abstract

Highlights:
• Effect of sea freshening on keystone predator impact, Asterias rubens, assessed.
• Three ecologically relevant salinity treatments (18, 15, 12ppt).
• Zero consumption occurred at the lowest, “future” treatment.
• Consumption found to mirror larval recruitment results.
• Likely implications for the structuring and functioning of ecological communities.

Abstract:
Predicting the myriad effects of climate change on ecological communities is a major challenge for scientists, and to date relatively few studies have focused on the effects of sea freshening on species interactions. In particular, changes in keystone species predatory effects could be pervasive. Here, we assess the consequences of decreasing salinity on the ecological impact exerted by a keystone predatory sea star, Asterias rubens. We quantified sea star functional responses (FRs; per capita predation as a function of prey density) under decreasing salinity treatments aligned with climate change projections (18ppt, 15ppt, 12ppt). Furthermore, we combined FRs with larval recruitment estimates, i.e. ecological “Impact Potential”, to act as an ecological indicator of predator population-level responses under this environmental change. Attack and maximum feeding rates of sea stars were reduced by decreasing salinities, with no instances of predation found at 12ppt. Given that decreasing salinities also reduced larval sea star recruitment, the overall Impact Potential of this keystone predator species was lessened by decreased salinity. Sea freshening projections by the end of this century could thus drive significant decreases in the effects of this keystone predator, with serious implications for the structuring and functioning of ecological communities.

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