Monteiro, Estela A, Silvy, Yona, Hohn, David , Burger, Friedrich A, Frölicher, Thomas L and Mengis, Nadine (2024) FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses. Environmental Research Letters, 19 (12). Art.Nr: 124012. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8807.

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Abstract

Different human activities and associated emissions of CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcing agents and feedbacks determine the final state of Earth’s climate. To understand and explain contributions to global temperature changes, many emission-based metrics have been employed, such as CO2-equivalent or -forcing equivalent. None of these metrics, however, include dynamic responses from Earth system feedbacks in terms of carbon and heat redistribution, known to play an increasingly important role in ambitious mitigation scenarios. Here we introduce a framework that allows for an assessment of such feedbacks in addition to CO2, non-CO2 anthropogenic forcing and natural external variability contributions. FROT (Framework for Radiative cOntributions to Temperature response) allows for an assessment of components of direct radiative impact to the system (climate forcing), as well as Earth system feedbacks concerning heat and carbon. The framework is versatile in terms of applications and allows for exploring individual components contributions to, for example, temperature stabilisation simulations, or comparisons in different models and scenarios, as it can reasonably explain their simulated temperature variability. Here, we apply FROT to both an intermediate complexity and a fully coupled Earth system model, as we simulate highly ambitious mitigation scenarios. Comparing temperature stabilisation scenarios, we can show that both net-zero CO2 emissions and small amounts of positive CO2 emissions could lead to a stable global temperature trajectory. Our assessment reveals that the effects of non-CO2 climate forcings, especially the development of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, and the dynamics of the carbon cycle, play a pivotal role in the final level of warming and in enabling a temperature stabilisation. Under highly ambitious climate mitigation scenarios it becomes crucial to include Earth system feedbacks, specifically ocean heat uptake, to understand interannual to decadal temperature development, since previously secondary processes now become increasingly dominant. Our framework offers the opportunity to do so.

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